Oil glut could keep prices low into 2016

Via: Source

BUY! BUY! BUY! Renewable energy assets that is (or oil, I mean, why not right), as news comes out of the IEA that a world-wide glut of oil create stagnant prices for the foreseeable future. Indeed, since last November OPEC initiated a number of strategies with aim at curbing oil production in many competing, oil-producing countries. Especially those that get their oil from shale, by fracking, because the price margins on that practice are much, much narrower.

And it appears that those initiatives have been working as intended, because despite the on-set of the summer travel season and its usual bump in prices, international oil supplies are keeping those rates lower than in years passed. Basically, because the 12 countries in the OPEC syndicate can create oil at lower prices than their competitors, if they do not slow down production, other countries will be forced out of the oil business, and reliance on OPEC-produced oil will once again rise.

What would the consequences of this be? It’s hard to tell. Energy dependence is a tough spot for any sovereign nation to be in, but even if OPEC does manage to squeeze out much of its competition, how much would that drive up dependence on their products? As we stated at the beginning of this article, renewable sources of energy like wind, water, and solar are becoming more viable from an economic standpoint every day. Will those resources bridge the energy demand that OPEC seems to be stoking? What do you think? Let us know in the comments section.

What is happening to the Chinese stock market?

Ah, China. Always an interesting case study on government intervention in markets. Still not fully emerged from their communist past, the government has seemingly applied an ‘if some is good, more is better’ type approach to market regulation and stimulation, which in years past has provided some pretty impressive results. As anyone who follows the markets even casually will tell you, China usually posts a GDP growth rate of roughly 8% per year, every year. This seemingly-impossible statistic has been questioned in the past, with investors wondering how much of that was propped up by the government. But the data coming out of China, and the ways international markets responded to that information, have always seemed to fall in line with that 8% GDP growth number.

Until recently that is. Starting in early June, the Chinese stock markets have been in an unprecedented state of turmoil, something international markets have not seen before. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why, and what some of the consequences of this instability may be.

Which way will they slide?

China’s stock market is composed of two main indexes: the Shanghai and the Shenzhen. Since their high points in June the Shanghai is down 32%, and the Shenzhen is down 40%. To put this in terms that might be slightly more digestible to some of our readers, imagine the Nasdaq sliding 32% while the Dow beat even that slide at 40%. The Dow and Nasdaq are indeed both larger, but the comparison remains. It’s getting bad over there.

However, as noted by the WSJ, this slide essentially only mirrors the massive gains that the indexes had amassed over the 12 months, as Chinese equity markets turned incredibly hot over the past year, with both indexes breaching 150% value increases year-over-year. However, the market got so hot, that as more and more players got involved, people started buying equity on borrowed money; never an awesome idea, albeit a common one, eventually turning prices downward.

With state intervention, the markets seem to have stabilized a bit in the second half of this week, and government agents are now investigating reports of rampant short-selling that had been accumulating for months. Obviously though, this just may be short term relief. The roots of this crisis probably go back to the 2008 international one, where China lowered interest rates along with the rest of the world; although it appears here that investors turned their attention toward assets, and not property as was likely hoped.

In terms of what will happen next, or what the consequences of this recent instability will be, it is still undetermined. Analysts at Credit Suisse predict increasingly drastic action out of Beijing until something seems to click, but other commentators, such as Michael Pettis, a financial commentator and professor based in Asia, believes this is all part of a long-predicted slow down of the Chinese economy; from 8% annual growth, to around 3%. An action he believes, would cut asset prices almost in half. We’ll see how the indexes themselves respond to all this uncertainty in a few hours.

What would the consequences of a ‘Grexit’ be?

For years, financial analysts and political observers alike have been wondering about what the consequences of a ‘Grexit’, or, Greece leaving the EU, would be. Now that the Drachma has made its first appearance on receipts and other financial documents, it appears that this possibility is closer to reality than we had ever envisioned before. Indeed, in one of the most clear signs pointing firmly towards a Grexit, the ECB refused to raise their $89 billion loan cap, which has led to cash rationing amongst banks in Greece, which in turn, left Greece with only one option to prop up its financial sector; printing Drachmas. They are not legally entitled to print Euros. So in that spirit, let’s take a look at a couple of scenarios for what could very soon be the new reality (or not) of an independent Greece.

Could it be?

Best Case Scenario: Many, including Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz believe that leaving the Eurozone would cause Greece short term pain that would be worth it in the end. The Drachma would almost certainly be drastically devalued in the immediate-term, which would actually have a couple of positive effects on some portions of their economy (cheap olive oil, or Mykonos vacations sound nice to anyone out there?). On the other hand, bank accounts would be depleted while they were converted to less-valuable Drachmas. But over time, a light at the tunnel would develop. Advocates of this scenario, those who think they should leave, state that the country would remain around 25% unemployment under strict austerity terms, if they stay within the EU. However, the only historical model to really point to in terms of a country defaulting on its debts, is Argentina, which has posted mixed, but also many years of positive, economic results in the time since they did.

Worst Case Scenario: There are a lot of factors working against Greece if they do decide to leave the EU, and execute a currency change. Greece is not a large exporter, and is not necessarily poised to become one as Argentina was able to. Even the now-departed Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stated that it would be hard for his country to mimic the export success of Argentina, which produces mass amounts of agricultural products. Also, the debts to the EU do not necessarily disappear, even if the Greek government decides to stop paying them. And paying them off in devalued Drachmas would prove even more difficult than it is now.

Truly a tough situation our Greek friends find themselves in. Check back here on the Daily Aggregator for more updates as this unique international story develops.

What the hell happened yesterday?

While there are a number of pressing business matters developing today, there were a few strange occurrences yesterday that we simply would feel remiss to not mention. Let’s dive in an take a look at all the oddities that went on this Tuesday.

As has been widely reported by many sources by this time, the New York Stock Exchange, the Wall Street Journal, and United Airlines all went down almost simultaneously.

Hackers?

When visitors attempted to access the WSJ website, they were greeted with only the dread 404 Error. United Airline flights were grounded for hours, sending passengers clamoring for other flights, trains, and busses. And at the NYSE, all trading was halted for a span of more than year hours. All three organizations are claiming that technical errors were the culprits, but the timing has led many to speculate that some how hackers were involved. Where these hacks would have originated, or what the motivations of the hackers would be, are all pure speculation at this point. In fact, Anonymous, the hacking group of debatable effectiveness, said cryptically in a tweet Tuesday night that they “Wonder if tomorrow is going to be a bad day for Wall Street…we can only hope.”

Do you think these events were caused by hackers? If so, do you think they were related? What do you think they were trying to accomplish if the outages were caused by hackers? All we know at this point is that a very curious series of events took place yesterday, although all the organizations seem to be back up to full functionality once again.

We will update this story if there are any further developments.