Kanye announces presidential run at MTV Video Movie Awards

Truly one of the most notable, progressive, and of course, controversial artists of our time, Kanye West was honored with a Video Vanguard award at the MTV VMA’s last night, the highest honor that the organization bestows upon any artist.

The award was notable for a number of reasons. First, a montage of Kanye’s many, many visuals was played, drawing attention to just how stylish and provocative the rapper’s music videos have been. Then, none other than Taylor Swift herself presented Kanye with his award, of course referencing the infamous ‘Imma let you finish…’ tirade from the VMA’s a number of years ago, when he famously interrupted her acceptance speech at the very same event. Then, Kanye himself took the mic for an 8-minute-long, somewhat-rambling, yet passionate, and ultimately pretty awesome acceptance speech. In it, he started off with an apology to Taylor Swift, providing really the first public commentary on that event from the man since it happened.

Then, things got really crazy. Kanye transitioned to a more thoughtful, more abstract speech; focusing on everything from the power of ideas, to how we need to teach children to love themselves, instead of compete with, or fear each other. He really touched on some nice points. But then, in the ultimate Kanye-being-Kanye moment, he did nothing less than declare a 2020 presidential run, immediately, and literally dropping the mic directly afterward. Kanye/Swift 2020? Time will tell. Either way it was a hell of a speech.

(Via Elite Daily)

China surprises everyone and devalues the yuan

As has previously been reported both on this site, and elsewhere, it has been an interesting summer for the Chinese economy. And with an announcement coming today out of Hong Kong that seems to have surprised truly everyone, that trend continues.

Indeed, as is being reported by CNN Money and other sources, the Chinese government has moved to devalue the yuan, as the People’s Bank of China is allowing the currency to depreciate close to 2% against the US dollar they announced Tuesday. The purpose for doing this, of course, is to keep export prices attractive, as that sector of the Chinese economy composes about 19% of total GDP.

But of course, the concern here, as alluded to in the embedded video, is a currency war. If China, the largest exporter in their region, has now devalued their currency close to 2%, will other exporters like Viet Nam and Japan be forced to as well? Mr. Woo, in the video, alludes that the effects might be felt as far as European countries like Germany, who’s exports to China account for around 3% of their respective GDP.

China has announced though, that this is a one-time-only move, necessitated by a recent policy change that stipulated that the PBOC will no longer set a daily midpoint value on the yuan, instead setting the price according the previous day’s closing value.

Bill Ackman views China stocks as risky to global stability

Via: Source

Taking one big step towards answering a question that many have been batting around for a week or two now, billionaire investor Bill Ackman, head of Pershing Square Capital, said on Wednesday that he considers China a bigger global threat than Greece is, and that the nation’s stock markets scare him in their current state. Let’s dive in and take a look at exactly what was said, and why.

No bulls in this China shop. — Via LinkedIn

“China is a bigger threat by far,” Mr. Ackman was quoted as saying at CNBC’s annual Delivering Alpha conference yesterday. As noted by many recent commentators, including a recent article on this site, the Chinese stock market has been on quite the wild ride as of late. Indeed, since June 12th, almost $4 trillion worth of value has been erased from the Chinese equities indexes, as investors who were double- or triple-leveraged looked for ways to become more liquid. Other issues noted by Mr. Ackman included an overall lack of transparency, and the reliability of its economic statistics.

However, as has been noted by other executives, such as CEO of Morgan Stanley Asset Management, Mary Erdoes, the Chinese economy as a whole does not correlate with this plunge in the markets, as they have turned in roughly 7% GDP growth every year for the past 25. Even Mr. Ackman himself admitted its hard to see anything but a solid long-term future for China.

When comparing their economy to Greece in terms of a global instability threat, it is easy to see how China could represent a more existential threat. Their economy is so much larger, and so much more tightly engrained with other global economies than Greece’s is, that although they are more stable, a negative turn could have more far-reaching effects.

What do you think? Do both economies represent global threats to market stability? Or do neither?

What is the ‘Sharing Economy’- and how will it affect industry, workers?

Via: Source

Hilary Clinton made waves on Monday morning when she effectively called out the major players in the ‘sharing economy’; a new business model that uses contract labor, instead of traditional employees, to fulfill their services. The implications of this seemingly small legal distinction can be massive. The classic examples of the new ‘sharing economy’ companies are Uber and Air Bnb. In light of the varying press the undoubtedly massive, innovative companies have been amassing in recent days and weeks; we wanted to take a look at what this trend could mean on a macro level as we head into the future.

Uber and Air Bnb are fascinating companies for a number of reasons. Globally speaking, Uber is now one of the largest, private transportation companies that there is. But they own not a single car. And similarly, thousands of people now book rooms and houses across the globe via the Air Bnb app, yet they own not a single piece of property. And that distinction is far from the only one differentiating them from conventional companies.

They both use contract labor forces outside of their corporate headquarters. I.e., the Uber driver that picks you up is not a benefitted employee who works exclusively for Uber, as a cab driver for a traditional cab company would be. That Uber driver is a contract-employee, only working when they want to, but also not receiving any benefits that a traditional employee earns, like healthcare or retirement savings. Now, if you’re a college kid looking to earn a little extra money by renting out your room, or by driving people around in your car, this arrangement is perfectly fine.

Where it theoretically becomes dangerous is if these companies serve as a kind of starting point; rolling the metaphorical snowball down the hill towards a point where we are ALL contract employees, responsible for our own healthcare and retirement savings. This would represent a potentially dangerous step if it became the norm. What do you think? Is the sharing economy a slippery slope? Or is a it a non-issue, being used by politicians to garner attention for themselves? Let us know in the comments.

El Chapo on the run again; Trump responds

Via: Source

In a move that has already drawn the ire of Donald Trump, who said he would (hypothetically) ‘kick his ass’, notorious Mexican drug lord El Chapo has tunneled his way out prison. This marks the second time in 15 years that this guy has escaped from jail in Mexico.

As noted in the video, to say this guy simply ‘tunneled out’, would be a bit of an understatement. The thing was a mile long, and equipped with a special motorcycle (run for it? El Chapo? I don’t think so.). This whole thing makes even that prison break in upstate New York last month look like amateur hour. And, it’s only the latest in a long string of absurd, tunnel-related antics orchestrated by the notorious El Chapo.

Over his time as a drug lord, El Chapo became a pioneer of using tunnels to both smuggle drugs, and move unseen throughout the cities he operated in, mainly Culiacan, the capital of the state of Sinaloa. He first used a tunnel to escape jail in 2001, and was caught again in 2014 by Mexican marines after a 13 year manhunt.

The importance of this is magnified as it undermines much of the progress (at least in the court of public opinion) that Mexican Enrique Pena Nieto has made on the eradicating-drug syndicates front.

Any updates, including on whether or not Donald Trump was able to administer his ass-kicking will be updated here.

Oil glut could keep prices low into 2016

Via: Source

BUY! BUY! BUY! Renewable energy assets that is (or oil, I mean, why not right), as news comes out of the IEA that a world-wide glut of oil create stagnant prices for the foreseeable future. Indeed, since last November OPEC initiated a number of strategies with aim at curbing oil production in many competing, oil-producing countries. Especially those that get their oil from shale, by fracking, because the price margins on that practice are much, much narrower.

And it appears that those initiatives have been working as intended, because despite the on-set of the summer travel season and its usual bump in prices, international oil supplies are keeping those rates lower than in years passed. Basically, because the 12 countries in the OPEC syndicate can create oil at lower prices than their competitors, if they do not slow down production, other countries will be forced out of the oil business, and reliance on OPEC-produced oil will once again rise.

What would the consequences of this be? It’s hard to tell. Energy dependence is a tough spot for any sovereign nation to be in, but even if OPEC does manage to squeeze out much of its competition, how much would that drive up dependence on their products? As we stated at the beginning of this article, renewable sources of energy like wind, water, and solar are becoming more viable from an economic standpoint every day. Will those resources bridge the energy demand that OPEC seems to be stoking? What do you think? Let us know in the comments section.

What is happening to the Chinese stock market?

Ah, China. Always an interesting case study on government intervention in markets. Still not fully emerged from their communist past, the government has seemingly applied an ‘if some is good, more is better’ type approach to market regulation and stimulation, which in years past has provided some pretty impressive results. As anyone who follows the markets even casually will tell you, China usually posts a GDP growth rate of roughly 8% per year, every year. This seemingly-impossible statistic has been questioned in the past, with investors wondering how much of that was propped up by the government. But the data coming out of China, and the ways international markets responded to that information, have always seemed to fall in line with that 8% GDP growth number.

Until recently that is. Starting in early June, the Chinese stock markets have been in an unprecedented state of turmoil, something international markets have not seen before. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why, and what some of the consequences of this instability may be.

Which way will they slide?

China’s stock market is composed of two main indexes: the Shanghai and the Shenzhen. Since their high points in June the Shanghai is down 32%, and the Shenzhen is down 40%. To put this in terms that might be slightly more digestible to some of our readers, imagine the Nasdaq sliding 32% while the Dow beat even that slide at 40%. The Dow and Nasdaq are indeed both larger, but the comparison remains. It’s getting bad over there.

However, as noted by the WSJ, this slide essentially only mirrors the massive gains that the indexes had amassed over the 12 months, as Chinese equity markets turned incredibly hot over the past year, with both indexes breaching 150% value increases year-over-year. However, the market got so hot, that as more and more players got involved, people started buying equity on borrowed money; never an awesome idea, albeit a common one, eventually turning prices downward.

With state intervention, the markets seem to have stabilized a bit in the second half of this week, and government agents are now investigating reports of rampant short-selling that had been accumulating for months. Obviously though, this just may be short term relief. The roots of this crisis probably go back to the 2008 international one, where China lowered interest rates along with the rest of the world; although it appears here that investors turned their attention toward assets, and not property as was likely hoped.

In terms of what will happen next, or what the consequences of this recent instability will be, it is still undetermined. Analysts at Credit Suisse predict increasingly drastic action out of Beijing until something seems to click, but other commentators, such as Michael Pettis, a financial commentator and professor based in Asia, believes this is all part of a long-predicted slow down of the Chinese economy; from 8% annual growth, to around 3%. An action he believes, would cut asset prices almost in half. We’ll see how the indexes themselves respond to all this uncertainty in a few hours.

What would the consequences of a ‘Grexit’ be?

For years, financial analysts and political observers alike have been wondering about what the consequences of a ‘Grexit’, or, Greece leaving the EU, would be. Now that the Drachma has made its first appearance on receipts and other financial documents, it appears that this possibility is closer to reality than we had ever envisioned before. Indeed, in one of the most clear signs pointing firmly towards a Grexit, the ECB refused to raise their $89 billion loan cap, which has led to cash rationing amongst banks in Greece, which in turn, left Greece with only one option to prop up its financial sector; printing Drachmas. They are not legally entitled to print Euros. So in that spirit, let’s take a look at a couple of scenarios for what could very soon be the new reality (or not) of an independent Greece.

Could it be?

Best Case Scenario: Many, including Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz believe that leaving the Eurozone would cause Greece short term pain that would be worth it in the end. The Drachma would almost certainly be drastically devalued in the immediate-term, which would actually have a couple of positive effects on some portions of their economy (cheap olive oil, or Mykonos vacations sound nice to anyone out there?). On the other hand, bank accounts would be depleted while they were converted to less-valuable Drachmas. But over time, a light at the tunnel would develop. Advocates of this scenario, those who think they should leave, state that the country would remain around 25% unemployment under strict austerity terms, if they stay within the EU. However, the only historical model to really point to in terms of a country defaulting on its debts, is Argentina, which has posted mixed, but also many years of positive, economic results in the time since they did.

Worst Case Scenario: There are a lot of factors working against Greece if they do decide to leave the EU, and execute a currency change. Greece is not a large exporter, and is not necessarily poised to become one as Argentina was able to. Even the now-departed Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stated that it would be hard for his country to mimic the export success of Argentina, which produces mass amounts of agricultural products. Also, the debts to the EU do not necessarily disappear, even if the Greek government decides to stop paying them. And paying them off in devalued Drachmas would prove even more difficult than it is now.

Truly a tough situation our Greek friends find themselves in. Check back here on the Daily Aggregator for more updates as this unique international story develops.

What the hell happened yesterday?

While there are a number of pressing business matters developing today, there were a few strange occurrences yesterday that we simply would feel remiss to not mention. Let’s dive in an take a look at all the oddities that went on this Tuesday.

As has been widely reported by many sources by this time, the New York Stock Exchange, the Wall Street Journal, and United Airlines all went down almost simultaneously.

Hackers?

When visitors attempted to access the WSJ website, they were greeted with only the dread 404 Error. United Airline flights were grounded for hours, sending passengers clamoring for other flights, trains, and busses. And at the NYSE, all trading was halted for a span of more than year hours. All three organizations are claiming that technical errors were the culprits, but the timing has led many to speculate that some how hackers were involved. Where these hacks would have originated, or what the motivations of the hackers would be, are all pure speculation at this point. In fact, Anonymous, the hacking group of debatable effectiveness, said cryptically in a tweet Tuesday night that they “Wonder if tomorrow is going to be a bad day for Wall Street…we can only hope.”

Do you think these events were caused by hackers? If so, do you think they were related? What do you think they were trying to accomplish if the outages were caused by hackers? All we know at this point is that a very curious series of events took place yesterday, although all the organizations seem to be back up to full functionality once again.

We will update this story if there are any further developments.