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How low can it go? Goldman Sachs says $20 barrels may be possible

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There has been a LOT of movement in financial markets this summer. China, Greece, and geo-political instability across the world have all combined to send indexes swinging up and down intensely. And now, coming on the heels of a new report out of Goldman Sachs, another indicator of fundamental shifts in the market; this time in the commodities market, has come to the surface.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs has issued a statement basically saying that the global surplus of oil is even larger than they had previously predicted, and that the surplus could last into 2017, sending prices for crude oil as low as $20 dollars per barrel.

On first glance, this would appear to be a very good. This would send the price of a gallon of gas at the pump below $2 for the first time in years, and some analysts have speculated, sustained prices that incredibly low may actually spur an increase in American manufacturing; a sector of the economy which has famously (infamously?) been in decline for decades now.

However, when given a longer, more thoughtful glance, prices that low create a diminishing returns scenario. Prices this low would signal systemic weakness in the commodities market. One of the reasons we are seeing this weakness is because prices this low could create a systemic shift in the commodities field, permanently putting American shale oil businesses under. 1 and 2 year views on oil are all lower, with virtually no analysts predicting a return above around $60 per barrel. If oil stays at 30-40 dollars per barrel, economists like Erwat Prasad predict that could be the ideal set of supply and demand circumstances, keeping US production viable, but prices also low. The real problems of diminishing returns may begin if the value dips lower than that for a sustained period of time. This price level would put massive pressure on a number of governments all around the world which depend on their oil exports, like Saudi Arabia or Argentina. This would spur on central bank action, the ramifications of which are not yet known.

The commodities market is certainly one to keep an eye on in coming months.

Ferrari set to file for IPO

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Even if you can’t quite afford one of the legendary Italian supercars, you may soon still be able to own a piece of Ferrari itself. No, there’s not some new supercar-crowdfunding/crowdsharing app (dibs that idea) set to debut, but in fact, the legendary automaker is set to become a publicly traded company for the first time in their illustrious history. Let’s take a look at some of the facts on Ferrari ahead of the IPO.

The question investors ponder with Ferrari is simply, is this a good investment? Or is this simply an investment everyone is going to WANT to make. Or does that fact that everyone is going to likely want in on the Ferrari action make it a good play in itself? Indeed, there is a lot to consider.

Ferrari is a relatively unique automaker. They produce at an incredibly low volume compared to many other automakers (shipping just under 8,000 cars last year, as compared to over 36,000 shipped by Maserati), which makes their main customer base of serious collectors, enthusiasts, and actual performance and race car drivers incredibly loyal. But of course, low output can also put a limit on profits, although the company has always performed more than solidly in the past.

This IPO deal is interesting for another reason as well. It is mainly being done to decouple Ferrari from FCA, which currently owns 90% of the company, the other 10% being owned by Piero Ferrari, son of the company’s founder. After the deal, roughly 80% of equity will be in the hands of shareholders. What do you think? Is Ferrari a good long-term stock pick? Or would you be better off simply saving up for one of the gorgeous vehicles?